Where Are Prediction Markets Legal? A 2026 Map
Prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing corners of finance, and regulators around the world are taking very different views on them. This is a careers and industry resource, so the point here is simple: where the industry can operate under a licence is where the jobs are. The picture below is a status-level snapshot as at November 2026, and it moves quickly, so treat it as a guide and check the detail locally.
The headline is that while much of Europe is restricting or banning the sector, Gibraltar took the opposite path and built the first dedicated rulebook in the world. That is a big reason operators are choosing to set up, and hire, there.
Gibraltar
The first jurisdiction in the world with a rulebook built specifically for prediction markets, in force 13 July 2026. Treated as its own activity, not betting or gaming. Two operators on the register of authorised operators as of November 2026.
United States
Traded as event contracts on CFTC-registered exchanges, including Kalshi and Polymarket's US platform. Several states treat sports contracts as unlicensed gambling, and most federal appeals courts that have ruled, including the Second, Sixth and Ninth Circuits, have let them enforce state law, while the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi. The CFTC is suing states to defend its authority, and the question may reach the Supreme Court.
Canada
A limited route opened in 2026: approved dealers can offer some event contracts, such as economic ones, traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. Political contracts are not allowed, and since August 2026 sports and entertainment contracts are excluded too. Other categories are still under review.
Malta
Fits within existing gaming licences today, and the government has signalled interest in a dedicated framework, but no bespoke regime has been enacted yet.
United Kingdom
The Gambling Commission says most prediction-market models are betting intermediaries that need a GB gambling licence. Polymarket and Kalshi are not licensed and are unavailable to British users, while licensed betting exchanges offer comparable markets. The FCA treats financial event contracts as binary options, which are banned for retail customers.
European Union
A July 2026 ESMA statement confirmed that national bans on selling binary options to retail clients apply to event contracts that are financial instruments, and individual member states are going further. A European Commission consultation on future treatment closed on 30 September 2026.
Netherlands
Ordered a major platform to stop serving the market in 2026, treating it as unlicensed gambling with no legal pathway.
France
The gambling authority classifies prediction-market platforms as illegal unlicensed gambling, and in July 2026 ordered internet providers to block Polymarket.
Belgium
Treated as unlicensed gambling, and part of a coordinated European crackdown announced in 2026.
Poland
Placed on the register of prohibited gambling domains, which triggers blocking. Not permitted for unlicensed operators.
Singapore
Classified as unlawful gambling under the 2022 gambling law, with access blocked.
Australia
Ruled a prohibited unlicensed interactive gambling service in an August 2025 decision, with a standing binary-options restriction alongside it.
Common questions
Which country was first to regulate prediction markets with a dedicated regime?
Gibraltar. Its Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on 13 July 2026 and are the first standalone rulebook built specifically for prediction markets anywhere in the world. Other places, such as the United States, regulate them under existing law rather than a dedicated regime.
Are prediction markets legal in the UK and EU?
Access is restricted. In the UK, the Gambling Commission says prediction-market operators need a gambling licence, the big platforms do not have one, and access runs through licensed betting exchanges. Across the EU, a July 2026 ESMA statement confirmed that binary-options retail bans apply to event contracts that are financial instruments, and several member states, including the Netherlands, France, Belgium and Poland, have banned unlicensed platforms outright.
Why does this matter for careers?
Where the industry can operate under a licence is where the jobs are. Gibraltar's dedicated regime, at a time when much of Europe is restricting the sector, is a big part of why operators are setting up here and hiring locally.
Want to work where the industry is growing?
Gibraltar is the one place with a dedicated regime, and its operators are hiring locally. See the roles and register your interest.
Prediction market jobs in Gibraltar →This is a general, status-level snapshot for careers and industry context, as at 8 November 2026, based on public regulator statements and legal briefings. It is not legal, financial or investment advice, it does not tell you where you may or may not trade, and it does not offer or promote trading. The regulatory picture changes quickly, statuses can be more nuanced than a single label, and rules vary within countries. Always check the current position with the relevant regulator or a qualified professional before acting. Prediction markets are an 18+ regulated activity.